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Training for the Unthinkable: Building Adaptive Expertise in High-Stakes Environments

Training for the Unthinkable: Building Adaptive Expertise in High-Stakes Environments

Posted

26.08.2025

Written by

Richard Bowen

In my earlier article, Deep Training in Safety Critical Roles, I examined Gary Klein’s Recognition Primed Decision (RPD) model and the value of immersive, scenario-based training in developing rapid, expert judgement under pressure. The essence of Klein’s work is clear: experienced practitioners often make split second decisions not by weighing up multiple options, but by recognising familiar patterns and drawing on a mental library of responses. This ability, honed through realistic practice, can be lifesaving in safety critical environments. Yet the same mechanism that makes recognition powerful also makes it fragile. As I argued previously, no training programme can anticipate every possible scenario.

In complex, high hazard systems, the event that tests you most may be the one you have never seen before. It may look, at first glance, like something familiar, but turn out to be something entirely different. It is here that recognition alone can mislead. Klein himself has acknowledged that while expertise changes how we see, it can also blind us to differences that matter.

The philosopher Karl Popper famously wrote, “All life is problem solving.” In high hazard contexts, the problems often arrive unannounced and unrecognised. Pumps can fail in novel ways. Control systems can interact unexpectedly. Minor anomalies can escalate into major incidents. These are the moments when our muscle memory may offer no ready-made answer. The challenge is not just to act quickly when the pattern is clear, but to think clearly when it is not.

This is where training must evolve. It needs to move from preparing people for what they already know towards equipping them for what they cannot yet imagine. Researchers in decision science describe this as cultivating adaptive expertise. That is the ability to apply knowledge flexibly, to innovate under pressure, and to respond effectively when the rules of the game appear to change.

Training for adaptive expertise requires a different approach. It is not about rehearsing a wider set of scenarios. It is about deliberately creating situations that disrupt expectations. Exercises that introduce conflicting information, incomplete data, or ambiguous cues force learners to slow down, question their assumptions, and explore alternative explanations before acting.

Weak signal detection is a vital part of this. Accident investigations repeatedly show that early indicators were present. A faint vibration, a shift in tone, a hesitant comment. Yet they went unrecognised or unheeded. As Professor Erik Hollnagel has observed, “Safety is not the absence of accidents, but the presence of capacities to respond” (2014).

The ability to spot and act on weak signals is one such capacity, and it must be trained deliberately. That means fostering attentional discipline, encouraging open-minded interpretation, and building the confidence to intervene in the face of uncertainty.

Importantly, in most high hazard situations, no single individual holds the complete picture. Decisions emerge from the interaction of many people, each seeing part of the whole. For this reason, preparing for the unprecedented is as much a social task as a technical one. Training must give teams the opportunity to practise communicating under pressure, sharing incomplete information, challenging assumptions, and reconciling different perspectives in real time.

Advances in technology make this kind of training more accessible. Virtual reality can place teams into high-fidelity, high-risk environments without physical danger. Artificial intelligence can power adaptive simulations that evolve in response to the decisions participants make. This ensures no two exercises unfold in the same way.

The real value lies not in the technology itself, but in its ability to create unpredictability. It should confront learners with situations that refuse to follow a script. The point is not to eliminate all surprises, but to be ready to be surprised.

The Health and Safety Executive has long emphasised competence as a foundation of effective risk control. In today’s environment, competence must go beyond procedural compliance or technical proficiency. High Reliability Organisations, which operate in unforgiving settings yet maintain exceptional safety records, understand this.

Their culture is one of chronic unease. This is a constant readiness to question, to adapt, and to seek out weak signals of trouble. These qualities do not arise by chance. They are deliberately developed through training that challenges both the mind and the habits of the organisation.

Ultimately, the real test of training is not whether it prepares people for a known emergency, but whether it equips them to handle the emergency they never expected. The most valuable programmes leave participants not with the illusion that they have seen it all, but with the confidence, curiosity, and agility to think clearly when they have seen nothing like it before.

In those moments, safety will depend less on what has been memorised and more on the capacity to adapt, collaborate, and act decisively in the face of the unprecedented. As Weick and Sutcliffe have written, “High reliability is not the absence of errors, but the presence of systems that catch them before they escalate” (2015). Well-designed training is one of the most important of those systems, but only if it prepares us for the world as it is, and as it might yet become.

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